(Photo by Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images)
President Donald Trump’s current approach toward Iran could lead the United States into a dangerous situation, according to terrorism expert and legal scholar Robert Pape, who warned that the strategy may be drawing the country into a conflict that becomes increasingly difficult to control.
Pape shared his concerns during a CNN interview on Wednesday morning, where he discussed the risks surrounding the administration’s military strategy. His warning comes at a time when some Republicans are reportedly divided over whether to fully support Trump’s plans regarding Iran.
CNN anchor Kate Bolduan began the discussion by referencing Pape’s recent analysis titled The Escalation Trap, asking him to explain why he believes the United States is entering a particularly risky phase in the conflict.
“Your take on this has been very, very interesting, but let’s start here,” Bolduan said. “You say that the United States is now entering the most dangerous phase in this military campaign so far. Explain why, recent Substack post.
Pape responded by pointing to his decades of research and experience studying military strategies and conflict escalation.
“Thanks for having me on, Kate,” said Pape. “For 30 years, I have studied air power and escalation. I’ve taught for the U.S. Air Force for 20 years. I’ve modeled the bombing of Iran, taking out [nuclear facilities at] Fordow, Natanz, and regime change.”
According to Pape, history suggests that relying on air power alone to overthrow a government rarely leads to lasting success. He argued that the United States could be repeating a pattern that has consistently failed in past conflicts.
The bottom line, Pape continued, is that “President Trump is up against the weight of history. For over 100 years, states have been trying to topple governments with air power alone. And, and I’m choosing my words carefully it has never worked.”
He warned that initial tactical successes in military operations can sometimes create a false sense of progress, while actually pushing countries further into prolonged conflicts.
“We are now about to enter the most dangerous phase of the escalation trap, as I call it, where initial success with precision weapons, which are tactically effective, and you see, we killed the Supreme Leader lead to strategic failure, which then suck us deeper and deeper into a conflict,” said Pape.
Pape added that such situations often escalate gradually, even when leaders initially claim they do not want deeper involvement.
“We didn’t plan to go deeper and deeper, and we kept saying we would not. And we are about to enter that phase in the next week or two,” he said.
Summarizing his concerns, Pape cautioned that the coming period could represent the most critical point in the unfolding crisis.
“This will be the most dangerous moment of the crisis.”
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